AND THE WINNER IS?.. (OSCARS 2012 PREVIEW)

Everyone else is doing it, so why shouldn't we?

As Hollywood prepares for its biggest night of the year, Oscar predictions are coming thick and fasf from all quarters.

Unlike Mark Whalberg, I don't claim to have any inside track on the minds of Academy voters but here's my best guess in the main categories:

BEST MOTION PICTURE

Nominees: The Artist, Hugo, Tree of Life, The Descendants, Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse

Likely Winner: The Artist

What Should Win: The Artist

Like Danny Boyle's 'Slumdog Millionaire' before it, Michel Hazanavicius' charming and clever silent movie began its Academy Awards journey as the underdog but arrives at the Oscars as the overwhelming favourite.

Fresh from scooping six Cesar awards in its native France, this celebration of silent and early sound cinema has led the way in all the key awards (the Golden Globes, Producers' Guild and the BAFTAs) and should become the first silent movie to scoop Best Picture since !Wings' won in the first Oscar ceremony in 1928.

'Hugo' appears to offer the best hope of an upset but it does appear to be a faint hope. 

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist), Terrence Malick (Tree of Life), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), 

Likely Winner: Michel Hazanavicius

Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese

It is widely assumed that Hazanavicius will bag an Oscar in this category and it would be a decent result. 'The Artist' is a cinematic gamble (a silent film in the multiplex era) which has paid off handsomely but it is also very intelligently made.

But if you want innovation, Martin Scorsese is the person who should be rewarded because of the imaginative way he deploys 3-D technology in 'Hugo' . The movie is Scorsese's finest since 'Casino' and it would be a popular upset.

Allen, Malick and Payne are making up the numbers on a heavyweight shortlist - although Steve McQueen should not have been overlooked for 'Shame'.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Demian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Likely Winner: Jean Dujardin

Who Should Win: George Clooney

In one of the hardest categories to call, Jean Dujardin's charming turn in 'The Artist' has the slight edge coming into the ceremony over George Clooney's impressive performance in the Hawaiian family drama 'The Descendants'.

A Dujardin win would be a popular victory but Clooney's performance as a cuckolded husband and put upon father is without a doubt the finest of his career and the most impressive.

Gary Oldman's wonderfully understated performance as the spy hunter, George Smiley would be a worthy winner too. However the final shortlist has been undermined by the Academy's failure to recognise Michael Fassbender's brave, committed and complex performance as a sex addict in 'Shame'.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help),  Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)

Likely Winner: Meryl Streep

Who Should Win: Meryl Streep

At the outset of the nominations, a Meryl Streep coronation seemed inevitable with Michelle Williams being marked out as having a distant chance of an upset for her performance as Marilyn Monroe.

However Viola Davis has been assiduously working the chat show circuit and now appears to be offering a significant challenge to Streep for her performance as a domestic in the racial drama 'The Help'.

Streep deserves to win for her commanding performance as Margaret Thatcher in an otherwise weak film. Quite how Rooney Mara ended up on the shortlist remains a mystery when Scottish actress Tilda Swinton should have been recognised for 'We Need To Talk About Kevin'.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Likely Winner: Christopher Plummer

Who Should Win: Christopher Plummer

Belfast's Kenneth Branagh is in the mix for his performance as Sir Laurence Olivier in 'My Week With Marilyn'.

However this category has always been a one horse race, with 82-year-old Christopher Plummer expected to become the oldest male Academy Award winner for his performance as an elderly widower who comes out as a gay man in 'Beginners' opposite Ewan McGregor.

Fellow octogenarian Max von Sydow turned in a strong performance in the flawed 9/11 drama 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close' but Tom Hardy and Sir Ben Kingsley must feel a little miffed that their performances in 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' and 'Hugo' were overlooked in favour of Nolte and Hill.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Likely Winner: Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Who Should Win: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

This has always been a star making category and this year is no exception. Octavia Spencer is the favourite for her performance in 'The Help' - although there is a strong possibility that her fellow cast member Jessica Chastain could split the vote.

In that scenario, Melissa McCarthy could come through for the comedy hit 'Bridesmaids' or if 'The Artist' is on a roll, Michel Hazanavicius's wife Berenice Bejo could be swept along by its success.

A gold statuette for Bejo would be thoroughly deserved for her charming performance as Peppy Miller. Her joyous performance is as critical to the movie's success as Dujardin's. Like Steve McQueen and Michael Fassbender, Carey Mulligan's omission in this category for her work on 'Shame' is simply baffling.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

Likely Winner: The Artist

What Should Win: A Separation

The screenplay categories sometimes offer Oscar voters the opportunity to make amends to those movies which impress them by pushing the boundaries of cinematic convention but are never going to win the major awards.

Neil Jordan is a prime example of this, receiving his gong for 'The Crying Game' in the year that Clint Eastwood's 'Unforgiven' dominated the Oscars.

I suspect, however, it is going to be a good night for Michel Hazanavicius with him also taking the Original Screenplay Oscar home - although both Woody Allen for 'Midnight in Paris' and Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for 'Bridesmaids' could spring a surprise. Arguably the best screenplay of the lot was Iranian writer-director Asghar Farhadi's marital breakdown movie 'A Separation' but it would be a huge surprise if it were to win in this category.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Nominees: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Likely Winner: The Descendants

What Should Win: The Descendants

In 2005, Alexander Payne's consolation prize for his wine buff comedy 'Sideways' failing to win in the major categories was the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay.

I believe this will happen again, although the husband and wife team of Peter Straughan and the late Bridget O'Connor would be popular winners if their excellent work on 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' were to be recognised.

George Clooney is nominated in this category too for his political drama 'The Ides of March' but Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian might be the ones to watch for their work on the acclaimed baseball drama 'Moneyball'.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango

Likely Winner: Rango

What Should Win: Rango

With no big Pixar movie in the frame, Gore Verbinski's animated western featuring Johnny Depp as a cowboy lizard seems to be the popcorn movie to beat.

'Shrek' spin-off 'Puss in Boots' was an enjoyable affair but the same could not be said about 'Kung Fu Panda 2'.

However given the popularity and sophistication of many animated movies, it remains a mystery why there is no specific category to recognise vocal performances in animated films or indeed CGI performances in other movies as well (although this might result in Andy Serkis collecting an award every year).

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Nominees: Bullhead (Belgium), Monsieur Lazhar (Canada), A Separation (Iran), Footnote (Israel), In Darkness (Poland)

Likely Winner: A Separation

What Should Win: A Separation

This is a category where the favourite tag is pretty meaningless and upsets can take place.

Asghar Farhadi's 'A Separation' has been a favourite of critics for some time but will it fall victim to anti-Iranian sentiment? 

Agnieska Holland's Holocaust drama 'In Darkness' may be the movie to keep an eye on - especially as she has a strong track record in film and also directed some episodes of HBO's accomplished and acclaimed Baltimore crime drama 'The Wire'.

BEST SHORT FILM

Nominees: Pentecost, Raju, The Shore, Time Freak, Tuba Atlantic

Likely Winner: The Shore

What Should Win: The Shore

Having only seen one of the nominated films, I have to admit this prediction may be a case of the heart ruling the head.

But there are compelling reasons why Terry George and his daughter Oorlagh's beguiling post Troubles drama might win - it is beautifully shot, well acted (Ciaran Hinds and Conleth Hill in particular) and twice Academy Award nominated George has built up a reputation in Hollywood as an assured writer-director (most notably for his work with Jim Sheridan and for his own movie 'Hotel Rwanda').

Irish actor Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane's altar boy drama 'Pentecost' is in the fray but this race is, as always, wide open.

OTHER AWARDS

Expect 'Hugo' to pick up technical awards like Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction, Best Film Editing.

'The Artist' may also nab Best Costume Design, Best Original Music Score.

The Muppets may well win Best Original Score for Bret McKenzie's song 'Man or Muppet'.

(This article originally appeared on Eamonnmallie.com)